Red Sox OF having great season, but faces stiff competition
Getty ImagesJacoby Ellsbury is hitting .312 with 36 stolen bases and a career-high 23 home runs so far this season.
ASK THE BASEBALL EXPERT
By Tony DeMarco
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 1:43 p.m. ET Aug. 30, 2011
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Q. Do you think Jacoby Ellsbury's performance this year is a surprise, or overdue? Is his season MVP caliber?
? Matthew, Winthrop, Wash.
A. The only thing that has surprised me about Ellsbury is the power production. While it's not at all unusual for a hitter to hit his peak production at age 27 (Ellsbury's age), I didn't think he had this kind of power.
His home run total (23) has surpassed his career total entering this season (20), and he has smashed his previous career high of nine (in 554 at-bats in 2008). Ellsbury's 2011 slugging percentage (.521) is just more than 100 points higher than his previous single-season high (.415 in 2009), and he already has set a new career high in doubles.
I thought of him as potentially a .300-20 homer-50 steal type player, but he could reach the 30-homer mark, which is a different realm.
Is that going to be enough for an AL MVP award? Let me say this: To me, MVP awards are won in September. That's when games matter most, and that's the time of the season that sticks in the minds of voters. So picking an MVP now makes little sense.
As legit as his numbers are, Ellsbury may only get the third highest number of votes on his own team, as Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia also are putting together big years.
Throw in Curtis Granderson's power breakout year, Jose Bautista, Tigers teammates Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, as well as Michael Young, Paul Konerko and Robinson Cano, and you have a very impressive AL top 10.
If I had to cast a ballot today, it would be topped by Gonzalez and then Bautista. But let's let the season play out, and see where things stand Sept. 30.
Q. Given their financial mess, will the Dodgers be able to keep Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier next season?
? Jose Luis, Mexico City
A. Matt Kemp will be a Dodger in 2012; of that you can rest assured. After Kemp's MVP-caliber, 30-homer/30-steal season, the Dodgers almost certainly will try to lock him up with a long-term deal before he heads into a 2012 free-agent season.
But at the very least, they can reach a one-year deal in arbitration, and either way, Kemp will get a huge raise from his $6.95 million salary.
The Dodgers' payroll sits at about $119 million, and despite all the criticism, that number is a 20 percent increase from the 2010 and 2009 payrolls.
There is major wiggle room for 2012 in that the only players working on multiyear deals are Chad Billingsley (three years, $35 million through 2014), Ted Lilly (three years, $33 million through 2013), Juan Uribe (three years, $21 million through 2013) and Matt Guerrier (three years, $13 million through 2013).That means there is room to keep Ethier, as well. But I'm sensing a potential parting of the ways with the Dodgers for both he and James Loney. You're undoubtedly aware of the current rift between Ethier and the front office over the severity of a knee injury that has reduced Ethier's effectiveness this season, especially since the All-Star break.
This isn't the first time he has butted heads with club management, and they may see fit to move him in the off-season. And if not, he'll work on a one-year deal heading into his 2012 free-agent season.
Loney, whose power never has developed, certainly will be dealt if the Dodgers can land a first baseman in free agency.
Q. There are loads of terrific rookie pitchers on major-league rosters this year. Which ones most impress you?
? Stephen Shoemaker, Tulsa, Okla.
A. I've always advocated each league having both a rookie player of the year, and a rookie pitcher of the year. It's often very tough to compare the two and pick just one overall rookie of the year, and I don't think it would cheapen the significance of winning if there were two separate awards.
One tough ballot that sticks out in my mind was when Kerry Wood edged Todd Helton for NL Rookie of the Year in 1998. Both deserved it, and to this day, Don Baylor (Helton's manager in Colorado that season), feels Helton got robbed.
As for this season, you have to start with Braves closer Craig Kimbrel, who already has 40 saves, and a ridiculous 14.5 strikeouts/nine innings ratio. The Braves are headed to the post-season, and Kimbrel is one of the biggest reasons why.The AL Rookie of the Year also could be a pitcher. Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson is putting together an excellent first full season, and isn't expected to have his innings limited much in September -- which could hurt Michael Pineda and Alexi Ogando's chances.
Pineda at 22 sure looks to be a No. 1-2 starter for the long haul, health permitting. Jordan Walden has played an important role in the Angels' rebound season, grabbing the closer job in April and landing a spot on the AL All-Star squad.
In no particular order, here's a bunch more starting pitchers: Vance Worley, Zach Britton, Ivan Nova, Josh Collmenter, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Cory Luebke.
And out of the bullpen: Fernando Salas, Aaron Crow, Chris Sale, Aroldis Chapman, Antonio Bastardo, Vinnie Pestano, Al Albuquerque.
That's quite an influx of quality young arms onto big-league rosters. Looks like this new era of pitching dominance is going to continue for awhile.
? 2011 NBC Sports.com? Reprintsadvertisement
Getty ImagesSabathia finally solves Sox, Yanks win
CC Sabathia snapped out of his Red Sox funk, striking out 10 in six innings to beat Boston for the first time in five tries this season and lead the New York Yankees to a 5-2 victory on Tuesday night.
Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/44329322/ns/sports-baseball/
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